Email this article Geospatial analysis of the incidence of lung cancer in the population of the Republic of Tatarstan and its relationship with natural and anthropogenic factors
- Authors: Gataullin B.I.1,2, Shlychkov A.P.3, Biktemirova R.G.1, Gataullin I.G.2
-
Affiliations:
- Institute of Fundamental Medicine and Biology, Kazan Federal University
- Kazan State Medical Academy
- Institute of Ecology and Subsoil Use of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tatarstan
- Issue: Vol 11, No 2 (2026)
- Pages: 129-135
- Section: Oncology and radiotherapy
- Published: 27.03.2026
- URL: https://innoscience.ru/2500-1388/article/view/701205
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.35693/SIM701205
- ID: 701205
Cite item
Abstract
Aim: to identify patterns of lung cancer incidence in the population of the Republic of Tatarstan and its dependence on air pollution and the cyclicity of solar activity.
Material and methods. The following data were used as initial data: data on lung cancer incidence available in the cancer registry of the Republican Clinical Oncology Dispensary of the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Tatarstan for the period from 2012 to 2021; data on emissions into the atmosphere and concentrations of carcinogens in the atmospheric air, available in the State reports “On the state of the natural environment of the Republic of Tatarstan” of the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Environment of the Republic of Tatarstan.
Results. The study demonstrated a high degree of correlation between the comprehensive index of air pollution with carcinogens (IAPc) and the incidence of lung cancer in the population (r=0.79 at the level of α=0.05). To identify the relationship between the solar activity and the incidence of lung cancer, a statistical analysis of the long-term incidence rate of the population and the level of solar activity was carried out using the relative number of sunspots (Wolf number, W). The correlation factor between W and the incidence of lung cancer is significant at α=0.05, the value being r=0.72, which indicates a noticeable strength of the relationship between the studied indicators.
Conclusion. Improving the monitoring system, monitoring the state of the external environment, and measures to prevent air pollution will help reduce the incidence of cancer, including lung cancer.
Full Text
INTRODUCTION
The incidence rate of oncological diseases is steadily increasing worldwide; this stimulates development of new strategies of combating them. Primary prevention has always focused on decreasing the morbidity rate by means of programs aiming at reduction of exposure of population to known cause factors. At the same time, prior to implementation of any strategies whatsoever, it is necessary to evaluate the probable effect of these causes on cancer rate and possibility of mitigating or eliminating their effect.
The analysis of incidence rate of diseases by using geographical informational systems (GIS) assists in identification of some correlations, studying of cause-and-effect relations, finding the main factors and predicting the situation for several years to come [1, 2]. In studying the cancer rates, the use of GIS helps in finding the trends of morbidity and mortality. This is instrumental in screening and treatment, as well as in delivery of efficient prevention programs [3].
One of the objects of study may be the lung cancer, a leading oncopathology with almost 2.5 million new cases and more than 1.8 million deaths worldwide in 2022. In the morbidity and mortality structure, it accounts for almost every eighth (12.4%) cancer diagnosis in the world and every fifth (18.7%) case of death due to cancer [4].
While the leading cause of lung cancer is smoking, pollution of the ambient air is no less significant in its etiology. It is the cause of 7 million deaths per year, but 99% of the world’s population live in locations where levels of pollution exceed those stated in the WHO recommendations1. Use of coal and heating oil as fuel, and high concentration of industrial enterprises have adverse effects on human health [5, 6]. Especially important is the role of coal-containing particles from vehicles and roads [7]. Some papers presented proof of air pollutants; capability of not only directly irritating the epithelium of airways but also causing oxidative stress and inflammation that underlie lung tumors [8, 9].
Solar radiation and the resulting geomagnetic activity are crucial factors in synchronizing human internal biorhythms with the environment. A number of studies have shown that solar activity and solar-induced geomagnetic disturbances influence the manifestation of arterial hypertension in elderly men [10]. A relationship has also been identified between solar and geomagnetic activity and human cognitive function [11]. It seems important to study the possible etiological role of cycles of solar activity in the occurrence of sarcoma of soft tissues. A relationship has now been established between indices of solar activity (Wolf numbers) and the incidence of leukemia, lymphomas, embryonal tumors, and other neoplasms [12]. Of considerable interest is the observed increase over time in the correlation between soft tissue sarcoma incidence and solar activity indices in the entire age population of Russia during the period 1990–2019, coinciding with a decrease in solar activity (cycles 22–24) over this interval [13]. Studies of incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphomas in children and adults in the USA established a cyclic pattern similar to solar activity, with a lag (delay) [14, 15]. Studies undertaken in Russia, confirmed the connection of the cyclic pattern of solar activity with the incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphomas in children and adults [16, 17]. A supposition was made on the influence of cycles of solar activity on the development of melanoma in humans. This hypothesis predicts a time delay in the cycles of melanoma rates relative to solar activity with the increasing distance from the polar caps [18]. It is possible that changes in the solar and geomagnetic activity influence the release of melatonin and the vegetative nervous system thus performing the pathological process [11]. This concerns, among other things, the balance between stress and anti-stress hormones, oxidative and antioxidant reactions, the ratio of suppressor and helper activity, as well as energy processes in immune cells [19, 20].
AIM
To identify patterns of lung cancer incidence in the population of the Republic of Tatarstan and its dependence on air pollution and the cyclicity of solar activity.
MATERIAL AND METHODS
The following was used as initial data: data on lung cancer incidence available in the cancer registry of the Republican Clinical Oncology Dispensary of the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Tatarstan for the period from 2012 to 2021; data on emissions into the atmosphere and concentrations of carcinogens in the atmospheric air, available in the State reports “On the state of the natural environment of the Republic of Tatarstan” of the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Environment of the Republic of Tatarstan2.
Among the anthropogenic factors, concentrations of carcinogenic substances in the air are taken into account, and among the natural factors, the solar activity (Wolf numbers (W)). The complex index of air pollution with carcinogens (IAPc) was calculated with breakdown by substances in the maximum allowed concentration (MAC) with respect to their hazard class (benzo[a]pyrene and formaldehyde).
For the purposes of qualitative assessment of incidence rate of lung cancer, the criteria for the ‘low’, ‘medium’ and ‘high’ were developed (Table 1).
Lung cancer incidence rate | Criteria of lung cancer incidence rate per 100,000 population |
Low | lung cancer incidence rate ≤ 39 |
Medium | 39 < lung cancer incidence rate < 47 |
High | lung cancer incidence rate ≥ 47 |
Table 1. Criteria for the incidence rate of lung cancer per 100,000 population
Таблица 1. Критерии уровней заболеваемости РЛ на 100 тыс. населения
In order to evaluate the intensity of increase (decrease) of lung cancer incidence rate using the recommendations provided in the work of A.A. Isaev (1988) [21], for each municipal region and urban district linear regression equations were formed у=ах+b, which were used to determine the morbidity trend. If the regression equation yields а > 0, a trend for lung cancer incidence rate in the municipal region and urban district is considered to increase, and if it yields а < 0, to decrease. Besides the intensity of increase (decrease) of lung cancer incidence rate depends on the absolute value of the factor а.
For the qualitative assessment of increase (decrease) of lung cancer incidence rate, trend evaluation criteria were developed: ‘significant’, ‘visible’ and ‘weak’ (Table 2).
Trend of lung cancer morbidity growth (decrease) | Evaluation criteria of lung cancer morbidity trend |
Significant | |а| ≥ 1,20 |
Visible | 0,65 < |а| < 1,20 |
Weak | |а| ≤ 0,65 |
Table 2. Criteria for assessing the incidence trend of lung cancer
Таблица 2. Критерии оценки тенденции заболеваемости РЛ
The information on the solar activity W was obtained from the website of the World Data Center for Solar-Terrestrial Physics3. Correlation analysis was selected as the primary analytical approach to assess the association between lung cancer incidence rates and parameters of solar and geomagnetic activity.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Lung cancer incidence rates among the population of municipal regions and urban districts of the Republic of Tatarstan for the period of 2012-2021 were studied. Zoning of the territory of the Republic of Tatarstan by lung cancer incidence rate is shown in Fig. 1.
Figure 1. Zoning of the territory of the Republic of Tatarstan by the incidence rate of lung cancer per 100,000 population in the context of municipal districts and urban districts.
Рисунок 1. Районирование территории Республики Татарстан по уровню заболеваемости раком легких на 100 тыс. населения в разрезе муниципальных районов и городских округов.
The analysis of data shows that the distribution of lung cancer incidence rate is uneven. High level of morbidity is identified in 12 municipal regions: the highest incidence rate in this group was found in Kamsko-Ustyinsky, Tetyushsky and Verkhneuslonsky regions, 64, 61 and 60 people per 100,000 population, respectively. Medium level of incidence was registered in 21 regions and low level in 10 regions and 2 cities, Naberezhnye Chelny and Kazan.
The distribution of districts and cities of the Republic of Tatarstan with recorded upward trends in lung cancer incidence, categorized by the degree of its severity, is presented in Table 3.
Growth trends in lung cancer incidence rates | ||
Significant | Visible | Weak |
Apastovsky | Vysokogorsky | Mamadyshsky |
Baltasinsky | Testyushsky | Mendeleevsky |
Tyulyachinsky | Tukaevsky | Aksubaevsky |
Pestrechinsky | Aznakaevsky | Buinsky |
Muslyumovsky | Arsky | Zelenodolsky |
Drozhzhanovsky | Agrizsky | Naberezhnye Chelny |
Novosheshminsky | Verkhneuslonsky | Kazan |
Yutazinsky | Chistopolsky | |
Zainsky | Bavlinsky | |
Yelabuzhsky | Sabinsky | |
Spassky | ||
Sybno-Slobodsky | ||
Nizhnekamsky | ||
Nurlatsky | ||
Almetievsky | ||
Table 3. Distribution of municipal districts and cities of the Republic of Tatarstan by the trend of increasing incidence of lung cancer in 2012–2021
Таблица 3. Распределение муниципальных районов и городов Республики Татарстан по тенденции роста заболеваемости раком легких в 2012–2021 гг.
In most districts and cities, an upward trend in lung cancer incidence is observed. It should be noted that a substantial increase in lung cancer incidence was recorded predominantly in districts primarily engaged in agricultural activities. The trend for the lung cancer incidence rate to decrease was registered in 14 regions of the Republic of Tatarstan (significant in 3, visible in 6, weak in 5 regions).
To illustrate, we provide the dynamic of lung cancer incidence in the Apastovsky region with a significant trend of growth, and in the Kaibitsky region, where a significant trend of decrease was seen in the incidence rates (Fig. 2, 3).
Figure 2. Dynamics of lung cancer incidence in the Apastovsky municipal district.
Рисунок 2. Динамика заболеваемости раком легких в Апастовском муниципальном районе.
Figure 3. Dynamics of lung cancer incidence in the Kaibitsky municipal district.
Рисунок 3. Динамика заболеваемости раком легких в Кайбицком муниципальном районе.
It is to be mentioned that Apastovsky and Kaibitsky regions are situated in the West of the Republic and share a common border. The probable reason of such dynamic of lung cancer incidence rates is accounted for by the specifics of use of crop protectors and pesticides.
In Kazan, a dependence of lung cancer incidence on ambient air pollution with carcinogens was identified. The cumulative carcinogenic air pollution index (IAPc) was used to characterize ambient air pollution. The relationship between ambient air pollution and the number of lung cancer cases in Kazan is shown in Fig. 4.
Figure 4. The relationship between air pollution and the number of patients with lung cancer in Kazan.
Рисунок 4. Связь загрязнения атмосферного воздуха с числом больных раком легких в г. Казани.
The regression equation describing the correlation between the lung cancer incidence rates in Kazan and air pollution index was as follows:
LC = 7.06• IAPc + 376.36 (1)
The correlation coefficient between IAPc and lung cancer incidence rate is significant at α=0.05 and is r= 0.79. The determination coefficient is 0.7 < R2 < 0.9, which shows a high strength of correlation between the studied indicators. The IAPc factor accounts for 63% of variability in the lung cancer incidence rate in Kazan.
The dynamics of values of the number of lung cancer patients in Kazan, i.e. the values actual (F) and calculated (P) with the regression equation (1) is shown in Fig. 5.
Figure 5. Dynamics of actual (F) and calculated (P) values of the number of patients with lung cancer in Kazan for the period of 2012–2021 using the regression equation (1).
Рисунок 5. Динамика фактических (Ф) и рассчитанных (Р) с использованием уравнения регрессии (1) значений числа больных раком легких в г. Казани за период 2012–2021 гг.
A satisfactory in-phase agreement (phase synchrony) is observed between the actual lung cancer incidence rates in Kazan and those calculated using regression equation (1). The maximum error of 5% occurred in 2012 and 2017, while the minimum error of 0% occurred in 2015 and 2020.
In order to establish a relation between the solar activity and lung cancer incidence rate, a statistical analysis of the number of patients in Kazan in 2012-2021 was performed. To assess the dynamics of solar activity, the relative number of sunspots (Wolf number, W) was used. The data follows in Fig. 6.
Figure 6. The relationship between W and the incidence of lung cancer in Kazan.
Рисунок 6. Связь W с заболеваемостью раком легких в г. Казани.
With the solar activity increasing, the number of patients with lung cancer was observed to decrease. The regression equation describing the relation between W and lung cancer incidence rate in Kazan is as follows:
CI = -0.38•W + 438.73 (2)
The correlation coefficient between W and the number of patients with lung cancer is r= 0.72, significant at α=0.05. The factor W accounts for 52% of incidence rate of lung cancer in Kazan. The determination coefficient is 0.5 < R2 < 0.7, which shows a significant strength between the studied indicators. The use of the connection between the lung cancer and the cyclic pattern of solar activity is preferably used to predict morbidity since W has a cyclic pattern of approx. 11 years. The dynamics of actual (F) and calculated (Р) values of lung cancer incidence rates in Kazan using regression equation (2) is shown in Fig. 7.
Figure 7. Dynamics of actual (F) and calculated (P) values of lung cancer incidence in Kazan using the regression equation (2).
Рисунок 7. Динамика фактических (Ф) и рассчитанных (Р) с использованием уравнения регрессии (2) значений заболеваемости раком легких в г. Казани.
A satisfactory in-phase agreement (phase synchrony) is observed between the actual lung cancer incidence rates in Kazan and those calculated using regression equation (2). The maximum error of 5% occurred in 2012, while the minimum error of 1% occurred in 2021. The dynamics of the number of patients with lung cancer in Kazan in 2012-2021, as well as its inertial and innovation prediction to the year 2030 using the regression equation (2) are shown in Fig. 8.
Figure 8. Dynamics of the number of patients with lung cancer in Kazan for the period of 2012–2021 and its inertial and innovative forecast until 2030.
Рисунок 8. Динамика числа больных раком легких в г. Казани за период 2012–2021 гг. и ее инерционный и инновационный прогнозы до 2030 г.
According to the inertial prediction, in 2030 the number of patients with lung cancer in Kazan is expected to grow by 103 people per 100,000 population, or by 27% vs. 2012 (381 cases). According to the innovative prediction, by the year 2030 (vs. 2012), a growth of patients with lung cancer is expected to increase by 59 people per 100,000 population, or by 16%.
Our findings support the assertion that ambient air pollution with carcinogens is associated with an increase in lung cancer incidence4 [22, 23].
CONCLUSION
The active expansion of industrial capacity in the petrochemical, chemical, oil extraction industries and mechanical engineering, along with the development of transport infrastructure in the Republic of Tatarstan is accompanied by anthropogenic environmental pollution. To reduce the incidence of oncological diseases in the population, particularly lung cancer, it is necessary to improve the monitoring system, control environmental quality and plan measures to prevent ambient air pollution with carcinogens.
The results of this study can be used to inform management decisions aimed at lung cancer prevention in the Republic of Tatarstan.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION | ДОПОЛНИТЕЛЬНАЯ ИНФОРМАЦИЯ |
Study funding. The study was the authors’ initiative without external funding. | Источник финансирования. Работа выполнена по инициативе авторов без привлечения финансирования. |
Conflict of interest. The authors declare that there are no obvious or potential conflicts of interest associated with the content of this article. | Конфликт интересов. Авторы декларируют отсутствие явных и потенциальных конфликтов интересов, связанных с содержанием настоящей статьи. |
Contribution of individual authors. Gataullin B.I., Shlychkov A.P., Gataullin I.G.: collection and processing of materials, concept and design of the study, writing and editing of the text. Biktemirova R.G., Shlychkov A.P.: collection, statistical processing of materials, writing of the text. The authors gave their final approval of the manuscript for submission, and agreed to be accountable for all aspects of the work, implying proper study and resolution of issues related to the accuracy or integrity of any part of the work. | Участие авторов. Гатауллин Б.И., Шлычков А.П., Гатауллин И.Г.: сбор и обработка материалов, концепция и дизайн исследования, написание и редактирование текста. Биктемирова Р.Г., Шлычков А.П.: сбор, статистическая обработка материалов, написание текста. Все авторы одобрили финальную версию статьи перед публикацией, выразили согласие нести ответственность за все аспекты работы, подразумевающую надлежащее изучение и решение вопросов, связанных с точностью или добросовестностью любой части работы. |
Statement of originality. No previously published material (text, images, or data) was used in this work. | Оригинальность. При создании настоящей работы авторы не использовали ранее опубликованные сведения (текст, иллюстрации, данные). |
Data availability statement. The editorial policy regarding data sharing does not apply to this work. | Доступ к данным. Редакционная политика в отношении совместного использования данных к настоящей работе не применима. |
Generative AI. No generative artificial intelligence technologies were used to prepare this article. | Генеративный искусственный интеллект. При создании настоящей статьи технологии генеративного искусственного интеллекта не использовали. |
Provenance and peer review. This paper was submitted unsolicited and reviewed following the standard procedure. The peer review process involved 2 external reviewers. | Рассмотрение и рецензирование. Настоящая работа подана в журнал в инициативном порядке и рассмотрена по обычной процедуре. В рецензировании участвовали 2 внешний рецензента. |
1 WHO Global Air Quality Guidelines. Particulate Matter (PM2.5 and PM10), Ozone, Nitrogen Dioxide, Sulfur Dioxide and Carbon Monoxide. World Health Organization, 2021. URL: https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240034228
2 “On Condition of the Natural Environment of the Republic of Tatarstan” for 2007-2021]. URL: https://eco.tatarstan.ru/gosdoklad
3 World Data Center for Solar-Terrestrial Physics. URL: http://www.wdcb.ru/stp/index.ru.html
4 On the state of sanitary and epidemiological welfare of the population in the Russian Federation in 2023: State Report. Moscow: Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-being, 2024. 364 P.
About the authors
Bulat I. Gataullin
Institute of Fundamental Medicine and Biology, Kazan Federal University; Kazan State Medical Academy
Author for correspondence.
Email: bulatg@list.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1695-168X
MD, Cand. Sci. (Medicine), assistant of the Department of Oncology, Radiology and Palliative.
Russian Federation, Kazan; KazanAnatolii P. Shlychkov
Institute of Ecology and Subsoil Use of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tatarstan
Email: shlychkov@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9671-3969
Cand. Sci. (Geography), Senior Researcher at the Institute of Ecology and Natural Resources of the Republic of Tatarstan.
Russian Federation, KazanRaisa G. Biktemirova
Institute of Fundamental Medicine and Biology, Kazan Federal University
Email: RGBiktemirova@kpfu.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0416-5342
MD, Dr. Sci. (Medicine), Professor of the Department of Human Health Protection.
Russian Federation, KazanIlgiz G. Gataullin
Kazan State Medical Academy
Email: ilgizg@list.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5115-6388
MD, Dr. Sci. (Medicine), Professor of the Department of Oncology, Radiology and Palliative.
Russian Federation, KazanReferences
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Supplementary files
СМИ зарегистрировано Федеральной службой по надзору в сфере связи, информационных технологий и массовых коммуникаций (Роскомнадзор).